Projects/Customer Health Forecasting

Customer Health Forecasting

Completed

Investigation into predictive analytics for Net Revenue Retention (NRR) and customer churn

Vision

The goal was to shift the Account Executive (AE) and Solution Architect (SA) teams from a reactive to a proactive engagement model. Instead of waiting for a customer to complain or churn, we wanted to predict their "health" score in advance, allowing the team to intervene early, reduce churn, and identify upsell opportunities.

Problem Statement

  • Lagging Indicators: Traditional metrics like support tickets or NPS are lagging indicators—by the time they are bad, the customer is already at risk.
  • Manual Analysis: AEs were manually trawling through dashboards to guess which customers needed attention.
  • Unknown Predictors: It was unclear if our telemetry data actually contained identifying signals for churn or expansion.

Methodology

I conducted a part-time pilot to assess the feasibility of automated health scoring:

  • Data Exploration: Leveraged the existing Google BigQuery data warehouse to analyze historical usage logs, billing data, and CRM records.
  • Feature Engineering: Used Python and PyPika to programmatically build complex SQL queries, extracted behavioral features (e.g., "active users trend", "feature adoption rate") from raw event logs.
  • Correlation Analysis: Modeled relationships between these usage features and historical NRR/churn events.

Outcome

The project was ultimately concluded after the pilot phase:

  • Weak Signals: We discovered that purely usage-based metrics had a low correlation with enterprise buying decisions, which are often driven by external factors (budget, champions) not captured in telemetry.
  • Data Sparsity: The available data was too sparse to build a reliable forecasting model with high confidence.
  • Strategic Pivot: The investigation saved the company from investing in a costly "Customer Health" platform build-out, redirecting focus towards improving data collection fidelity first.