# ADR 005: Early-cohort pricing
- HTML version: https://robbiepalmer.me/projects/agent-friendly-remote-development/adrs/005-small-cohort-pricing
- Project: Agent-friendly Remote Development (https://robbiepalmer.me/projects/agent-friendly-remote-development.md)
- Status: Proposed
- Date: 2026-09-06
- Initiatives: Semi-autonomous Software Development (https://robbiepalmer.me/initiatives/semi-autonomous-software-development.md)
# Context
The first paid offer needs to test whether developers value a maintained,
persistent workspace. Every user brings and pays for their own model-provider
subscriptions and API keys. The service price covers the workspace,
availability, onboarding, backup, recovery, and support.
The Hetzner CX33 selected in
[ADR 000](/projects/agent-friendly-remote-development/adrs/000-hetzner-cloud)
lists at €8.49 per month in Germany or Finland. One
[public IPv4](https://docs.hetzner.com/cloud/servers/primary-ips/overview/)
adds €0.50, producing an €8.99 net host bill before VAT, backup, and paid
networking or egress add-ons. A second workspace creates no new compute bill
while the host has spare capacity.
Self-hosting is the cheapest close alternative. A capable user can take the
open source definitions, rent a low-cost VPS, and operate it. The paid service
charges for setup, maintenance, recovery, and ongoing availability.
# Decision
Keep the brother pilot free. Use it to test onboarding, isolation, and recovery
without attaching a commercial experiment to a family relationship.
Offer the first non-family invitees one persistent workspace for **£15 per
month** with these terms:
* users bring their own model-provider accounts and keys;
* the invited pilot has no SLA;
* founder onboarding and support are included;
* one workspace runs on shared infrastructure with fair-use resource limits;
and
* a user may cancel at any time and receive an export within seven days.
The export includes POSIX workspace files and non-credential home-directory
state, with at least 10 GiB of export capacity. Before delivery, revoke provider
sessions and workspace access, then remove tokens, cookies, private keys, and
other login state from the archive. Delete the hosted copy after the user
confirms receipt or after 14 days, whichever comes first.
Do not meter active hours while users share a fixed-price server. If the cohort
exhausts capacity, pause invitations and decide whether existing revenue
justifies the next server size before buying it.
After three non-family users have each renewed twice, test **£25 per month** for
the next invitee. Record the quote and response. Do not change existing users'
prices during this experiment.
# Managed-runtime comparison
The product promises access at any time and continued execution while an agent
is working. The comparison therefore models one environment running for 730
hours in a month. Prices exclude tax, egress, model usage, and support.
| Runtime | Assumed environment | Approximate monthly runtime cost |
| ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------: |
| Hetzner CX33 | 4 shared vCPU, 8 GB, one public IPv4 | €8.99 net in Germany or Finland |
| Coder Community on CX33 | Existing K3s capacity | Same host bill, plus control-plane overhead |
| Fly Sprite | Average 0.6 CPU, 1.5 GB RAM, 10 GB storage | $83.75 if it never sleeps |
| Daytona | 2 vCPU, 4 GiB RAM, 10 GiB storage | $121.68 |
| GitHub Codespaces | 2 cores, 8 GB, 8 GB storage | $131.96 list; about $120.60 after a GitHub Free allowance |
| Modal Sandbox | 2 vCPU, 4 GiB RAM, 10 GiB volume | About $174.61 |
| Ona Core | 4 vCPU, 16 GB for 730 hours | About $183 to $190 from published OCU examples |
| Runloop Basic | 2 CPU, 4 GB RAM, 10 GB storage | About $233.76 |
Sources: [Hetzner server pricing](https://docs.hetzner.com/general/infrastructure-and-availability/price-adjustment/),
[Hetzner IP pricing](https://docs.hetzner.com/cloud/servers/primary-ips/overview/),
[Fly pricing](https://fly.io/sprites/),
[Daytona pricing](https://www.daytona.io/pricing),
[Codespaces billing](https://docs.github.com/en/billing/concepts/product-billing/github-codespaces),
[Modal pricing](https://modal.com/pricing),
[Ona pricing](https://ona.com/pricing/), and
[Runloop pricing](https://runloop.ai/pricing).
Managed runtimes can be cheaper when they suspend idle environments. The
service must test that behaviour with T3 Code and unattended agents before
using sleep assumptions in a savings claim. Fly, for example, counts open TCP
connections as activity.
# Customer break-even
Using the providers' published rates and the
[European Central Bank reference rates for 4 September 2026](https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/D.USD+GBP.EUR.SP00.A?startPeriod=2026-09-04\&endPeriod=2026-09-04\&format=csvdata),
€1 equalled $1.1622 and £0.85898. Dividing those rates gives £1 = $1.3530. The
table shows the monthly active runtime after which the fixed workspace price
becomes cheaper. Inactive storage remains allocated for the whole month where
the provider charges for it.
| Alternative | £15 becomes cheaper after | £25 becomes cheaper after | Assumption |
| ------------------------ | ------------------------: | ------------------------: | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Runloop Basic | 64 hours | 106 hours | Suspend and resume requires its $250 Pro plan |
| Ona Core | 81 hours | 121 hours | Uses the included 80 OCUs, then whole 40-OCU add-on packs |
| Modal Sandbox | 82 hours | 139 hours | A sandbox can live for at most 24 hours |
| Daytona | 122 hours | 203 hours | 2 vCPU, 4 GiB RAM, and 10 GiB storage |
| GitHub Codespaces | 173 hours | 248 hours | Includes 60 runtime hours on a two-core machine from the personal GitHub Free plan |
| Fly Sprite | 176 hours | 294 hours | Average 0.6 CPU, 1.5 GB RAM, and 10 GB storage while active |
| Self-hosted Hetzner CX33 | Never | Never | €8.99, about £7.72, before the owner's time and operational risk |
The calculation subtracts fixed base or storage fees from the monthly price,
then divides by the active hourly rate. Fly includes hot storage in its active
rate; its lower cold-storage rate runs for the full month. Codespaces includes
the first 60 runtime hours on a two-core machine. Ona rounds up to the next OCU
pack.
These figures compare published bills under stated assumptions. The products
differ in isolation, persistence, support, limits, and lifecycle features. A
customer who uses only a few hours each month may spend less on a usage-based
service.
At 160 active hours, the estimated bills are about £13.30 for Codespaces,
£13.68 for Fly, £19.71 for Daytona, £28.81 for Modal, £29.56 for Ona, and
£37.87 for Runloop. The likely £15 customer uses the workspace throughout the
working week and wants persistent multi-repository state without server
maintenance. A £25 offer needs evidence of additional value.
# Economics
Track two measures separately.
Cash contribution:
```text
cohort revenue
- infrastructure added because of the cohort
- payment and currency-conversion fees
```
Shadow contribution:
```text
cash contribution
- allocated existing infrastructure
- founder onboarding, support, and incident time
```
Cash contribution catches an immediate loss during discovery. Shadow
contribution shows whether the service could support a business and which
manual work needs automation.
If one customer carried the complete €8.99 net host and IPv4 cost, about £7.72,
a £15 payment would leave £7.28 before tax, fees, backup, and support. Actual
margin depends on workspace density and the next server size. At
[Hetzner's June 2026 list prices](https://docs.hetzner.com/general/infrastructure-and-availability/price-adjustment/),
moving from a CX33 to a CX43 in Germany or Finland adds €7.50 per month before
tax and networking. Capacity measurements remain necessary because concurrent
builds and browser sessions may exhaust memory before average CPU becomes the
constraint.
Keep Work Graph and project-tracker value out of workspace savings claims until
a user cancels another tracker, chooses this service because of that
integration, or pays more for it. Promotional credits and free-plan list prices
do not establish recurring customer savings.
# Review point
Review this decision after two months or three non-family renewals, whichever
comes later. Record:
* retention at the quoted price;
* the alternative each user would choose;
* which users would self-host if the service disappeared;
* peak concurrent agents, memory pressure, and disk growth;
* operator minutes per user and their causes; and
* infrastructure incidents and failed work.
Raise the price when retained users value the service and the next cohort
accepts the higher amount. Infrastructure savings alone provide no evidence for
a higher customer price.
# Consequences
The £15 offer tests willingness to pay while the free pilot tests the product
contract. BYOK keeps volatile model costs outside the service economics, and
fixed pricing matches the shared host's fixed cost.
Founder labour remains subsidised during discovery. Shared capacity limits the
number of available places, and a paid pilot creates expectations despite the
lack of an SLA. Technically capable users may continue to prefer self-hosting.
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