# Jevons' Paradox

> Efficiency can lower the effective cost of a resource enough that total use rises instead of falls.

- HTML version: https://robbiepalmer.me/ideas/jevons-paradox
- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Jevons' paradox describes a rebound effect strong enough to reverse the expected saving. A more
efficient way to use a resource lowers its effective cost, demand expands, and total consumption can
rise.

It is not a rule that every efficiency gain increases consumption. Demand must respond strongly
enough, and the surrounding constraints matter. The value is in asking the second-order question
before counting an efficiency gain as a saving.

Software has plenty of candidates. If agents make code cheap to produce, organisations may ask for
more software, attempt more changes, and generate more code than before. Compute, review attention,
and operational complexity can all rise even when each individual change costs less to create.

## Questions it prompts

* Which new demand becomes viable when this gets cheaper?
* Does the plan assume usage stays fixed after the cost changes?
* Where will the extra volume move the next bottleneck?

## Related ideas

- [Goodhart's Law](https://robbiepalmer.me/ideas/goodharts-law.md): When a measure becomes a target, pressure to improve the number can break its connection to the outcome it once represented.

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